Amid an otherwise unexceptional weekend in the Premier League, the north London derby stands out as the most significant fixture by a considerable distance. There’s little love lost between Arsenal and Tottenham and to add even more intensity than usual, Saturday’s game feels like the moment in which Spurs could truly announce themselves as the new dominant force in north London. Arsenal will certainly fancy their chances at home though, having not lost there since Bayern Munich’s visit in March. So, what does history tell us, how will the referee influence the match and what are the likeliest starting XIs? Here’s everything you need to know ahead of kickoff…
What history tells us
Unsurprisingly considering they’ve finished behind Tottenham just once, Arsenal have been the dominant force in this fixture throughout the last 25 years of the Premier League. Spurs’ miserly win rate on their patch will give Arsene Wenger’s side huge confidence going into Saturday’s 12.30pm kickoff, alongside the fact they’ve claimed more wins and scored more goals than the Lilywhites down the years. However, the Gunners would be naive to ignore how the north London derby has balanced out in recent years; they’ve not actually beaten Spurs in the top flight since 2014, whereas Mauricio Pochettino’s side have claimed two wins in that time. Still though, Tottenham’s last win at the Emirates Stadium was all the way back in 2010 – a 3-2 under Harry Redknapp.
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Referee influence – Mike Dean
There’s a common theory that Mike Dean has a soft spot for Tottenham, not least because he always seems to make some of his most controversial decisions against Arsenal. The statistics too, suggest Dean’s refereeing style will benefit the visitors more than the home side; Spurs will likely set up to defend well and hit Arsenal on the break, something they’ve proved so potent at this season, and Dean currently ranks in the bottom seven of the Premier League’s 18 referees for fouls per tackle and fouls per game. In a nutshell, that surprising leniency seems to lend itself to Tottenham more. At the same time, it’s Arsenal who have the worse disciplinary record this term and Dean is notorious for dishing out cards, so they’ll have to be careful to avoid incurring more on Saturday, and just 38% of the matches he’s overseen this season have ended in home wins. That, in theory, gives Spurs a 62% chance of coming away with at least a point.
Team News
Arsene Wenger returns from the international break without any new injury concerns excepting substitute striker Olivier Giroud, who looks set to miss Saturday’s game, while Shkodran Mustafi and Danny Welbeck could both be available if they pass late fitness tests. Perhaps the biggest boost for Arsenal fans, though, is the strong likelihood that club-record signing Alexandre Lacazette will be in the starting XI after surprisingly finding himself benched for the Gunners’ defeat to Manchester City last month, with Alexis Sanchez and Mesut Ozil lining up either side of him. Plenty of attention will be placed on central midfield though; although Aaron Ramsey has consistently shown what he can do going forward, Granit Xhaka has struggled to protect when the Welshman’s attacking runs have left space in the engine room. That could force Wenger into a slight reshuffle, but maintaining a 3-4-3 system that matches up with Tottenham’s remains the likeliest scenario.
Tottenham have a few injury concerns on paper but after missing England’s friendlies it’s more than likely Dele Alli, Harry Winks and Harry Kane will all be fit for Saturday’s clash. The big injury blow is Toby Alderweireld; he’s been out for a few weeks already but Pochettino has now confirmed he’ll be stuck on the sidelines until after Christmas. That inevitably weakens Spurs’ back three, which could see Pochettino revert back to 4-2-3-1 in order not to deplete his depth ahead of such a crucial period of the season. But once again, it’s more likely both managers will try to match up this weekend in the hope their players will win the key individual battles – particularly at wing-back where Pochettino has four ample options to choose from and central midfield, where Mousa Dembele looks set to provide power and guile in his first start since facing Barnsley in September.
