We looked like we were on our way to a fourth-straight profitable week including a huge boost to our bankrolls in Week 7, sitting at 7-2 through the early afternoon slate on Sunday. Then, like watching a slow-motion car crash, our record for the week slowly got worse and worse. We ended up losing six straight games including all three late-afternoon Sunday games, Sunday Night Football, and both Monday Night Football games to fall to 7-8 on the week for -1.62 units.
A truly heartbreaking ending to what looked like a guaranteed profitable week. Betting on every single game of the season isn't for the faint of heart. Our season-to-date record drops to Season-to-date: 56-50-1 (+2.86 units).
All we can do is brush ourselves off and try to rebound in Week 8. There are no BYE weeks, so we have a full 16-game slate to bet on.
If you want to listen to the audio version of this week's picks, including some more in-depth analysis, check out the latest episode of Bacon Bets wherever you get your podcasts. The video version of the podcast is posted below.
As always, I'll follow the rules and guidelines that I laid out ahead of the opening week. It's time to dive into my best bet for every single Week 7 game.
NFL Week 8 Bets for Every GameVikings vs. Rams Prediction
I'm a bit confused as to why the total for this game is so high. Usually, games with this high of totals are reserved for matchups between two high-powered offenses and two defenses which are average at best. That's not the case in this game.
The Vikings' defense has established itself as one of the most elite units in the NFL, ranking sixth in opponent yards per play (5.1), first in opponent EPA per play, and second in opponent success rate. They also lead the league in pressure rate (30.7%) which is bad news for a Rams team that allows the fourth-highest pressure rate at 26.4%.
I'd lay the points with the Vikings in this spot, but I have some concerns about the Vikings' offense that ranks middle of the pack in most statistics and has the makings of a unit that is poised for regression as the season goes on. Instead, I'm going to bet the UNDER on the total that I think is a couple points too high.
Eagles vs. Bengals Prediction
I envision the Eagles being able to run the ball all over this Bengals defense. We have seen them already this year run the ball play after play if it continues to work, including their Week 7 game against the Giants when they ran the ball on 69.23% of plays.
The Bengals rank 30th in opponent rush EPA and dead last in opponent rush success rate, while the Eagles rank fourth and 10th for the offensive side of those two statistics. They're also averaging 5.0 yards per carry, the seventh-best mark in the NFL.
It's also worth noting the Philadelphia defense may have figured something out. After a bad first few weeks of the NFL, they're now leading the NFL in opponent yards per play over their last three games at just 4.4. I'll take the field goal with the Eagles.
Cardinals vs. Dolphins Prediction
With Tua Tagovailoa likely back in the lineup for the Dolphins, I'm going to lay the three points with Miami. The Cardinals' secondary has been one of the worst in the NFL and while the Dolphins offense has looked bad without Tua, let's not forget about the weapons the Dolphins have. Now that they are back to having a quarterback who can get the ball in their hands, they're going to be a dangerous team.
Hiding behind the lack of offensive production by Miami has been a defense that's been fantastic in 2024, ranking seventh in opponent EPA per play, sixth in opponent success rate, and seventh in opponent yards per play (5.1).
Jets vs. Patriots Prediction
We can feel safe buying low on the Jets in this spot. They've already beaten up on the Patriots once this season, beating them by a final score of 24-3 and outgaining them 5.7 yards per play to 2.9. The Patriots secondary has been horrific this season, ranking 29th in opponent EPA per dropback, and their inability to pressure the quarterback is going to allow Aaron Rodgers to have a big day.
Drake Maye has looked solid in his first two starts but now he has to play the strongest defense he has faced so far in his rookie campaign. Not only can the Jets create pressure against the Patriots' terrible offensive line, but their secondary is going to throw a lot of things at the rookie that will keep him second-guessing himself. Teams can run the ball on New York, but unfortunately for New England, their running game has been ineffective in 2024.
I'll lay the touchdown on the Jets on the road.
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Prediction
The Buccaneers were slight favorites on Monday morning, but after Mike Evans and Chris Godwin's injuries during Monday Night Football, the line opened back up at Falcons -2 for this NFC South rematch. I didn't hesitate to jump on Atlanta, as I assume the line will balloon to -3 unless it's announced the Bucs will have Evans back for Week 8.
With no Evans or Godwin, I struggle to find ways for Tampa Bay to move the ball. Their opponents will likely load up the box to stop their run game and make them lean on a group of backup receivers to get some sort of momentum through the air.
Last week's performance by the Falcons was a bad one. Penalties, turnovers, bad playcalling, and poor play led to a big loss to the Seahawks, but that was likely one of those games we can dismiss. Every team has a game or two throughout the season where they bring their "F" game and that was certainly one of those for Atlanta.
The Falcons are a much healthier team and will be able to take advantage of that offensively. Tampa Bay will have to pull something out of their bag of tricks to win this game.
Pick: Falcons -2 (-110)
Titans vs. Lions Prediction
I may be betting on the Titans too much this season, but I simply can't look past betting on them as double-digit underdogs. Yes, their offense is horrific, but their defense is a top-five unit in the NFL. They're second in opponent yards per play (4.8), 12th in opponent EPA per play, and first in opponent success rate. Any team with that good of a defense doesn't deserve to be this big of an underdog, even if they're supremely outmatched on offense.
I'll make the ugly bet and take the points with the Titans.
Packers vs. Jaguars Prediction
This game features one of the best passing attacks in the NFL against one of the worst secondaries. Backing the Packers seems like an absolute no-brainer at -4.5. Green Bay ranks seventh in the NFL in yards per pass attempt (7.9) and now they get to face a Jacksonville team that ranks 30th in opponent yards per pass attempt (7.6), 27th in opponent dropback success rate, and dead last in opponent dropback EPA.
The Packers have worked their way up to now ranking third in the NFL in Net Yards per Play this season at +1.0, behind only the Ravens (+1.3) and 49ers (+1.1).
Colts vs. Texans Prediction
I simply can't bet on the Colts when Anthony Richardson is their starting quarterback. Amongst all QBs who have played at least 112 snaps this season, Richardson ranks dead last in EPA+CPOE composite and is the only one who has a negative mark in that metric at -0.036. That's worse than the likes of Deshaun Watson, Andy Dalton, and Jacoby Brissett.
The Texans' defense has also been an underrated unit this season, ranking inside the top 10 in opponent yards per pass attempt, opponent EPA per play, and opponent success rate. This could end up being a coming-out party for Houston.
Ravens vs. Browns Prediction
Think whatever you will about the Deshaun Watson injury, but if Jameis Winston starts at quarterback it's going to be a big upgrade for Cleveland in Week 8. Deshaun Watson ranked dead last amongst all starting quarterbacks in adjusted EPA per play, it'd be hard for his replacement to be just as bad.
The Ravens, while looking dominant in recent wins, still have some issues defensively, especially in their secondary. I hesitate to lay double-digit points on a team that has allowed as much success through the air as Baltimore has. It will always leave the door open for their opponents to come back and get a backdoor cover. I'll take the 11.5 points with Cleveland.
Bills vs. Seahawks Prediction
We may not have seen the full extent of it next week, but I don't think it can be understated how much of a positive effect Amari Cooper will have on this Bills offense. It was a unit that was one-dimensional for the first six weeks of the season, and now Josh Allen has a real weapon at wideout he can rely on after having already been playing at an MVP level.
When it comes to the run game, the Seahawks and Bills rank 29th and 30th in opponent yards per carry allowing an average of 5.0 and 5.1 yards per rush respectively, but it's the Bills who are better equipped to take advantage of it.
I'll lay the field goal with the Bills.
Saints vs. Chargers Prediction
We saw what happened to the New Orleans Saints last Thursday night when they had to have their backup quarterback go up against an elite defense. It was an abysmal performance by New Orleans that ended in a Broncos rout. Well, we have the exact same situation in Week 8. The Saints are still not healthy and have to once again try to get some kind of offensive production against one of the better defenses in the NFL in Los Angeles.
Let's not forget the Saints defense ranks dead last in the league in opponent yards per play, allowing 6.1 yards per snap.
Panthers vs. Broncos Prediction
We have a game with an elite defense and two offenses that are amongst the worst in the NFL, yet the total for the is set in the mid-40s. I don't know what the explanation for that could be.
The Broncos' defense leads the NFL in opponent yards per play at 4.4, which is 0.4 fewer yards per play than the next-best defense. They're also second in opponent EPA per play and fourth in opponent success rate. As a cherry on top, they sport the third-highest pressure rate, pressuring opposing quarterbacks on 28.6% of their dropbacks.
Considering the Panthers only average 15.7 points per game as it is, I don't know how they'll score points against this elite of a defense.
The Broncos offense hasn't been much better, averaging 20.7 points per game and ranking 25th in EPA per play.
The UNDER in this game may be my favorite bet on the board.
Chiefs vs. Raiders Prediction
The Las Vegas Raiders might be in the best buy-low spot of the week. While Gardner Minshew is far from a good quarterback, his ceiling is at least enough to keep a team in a game.
Despite the Chiefs being undefeated, I'm still not convinced they're playing at an elite level. They're just 14th in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +0.2, sandwiched between the likes of the Eagles and Jets.
They're a better team than the Raiders, but not good enough to lay 10 points on them on the road. Las Vegas has been outed by some poor decision-making and poor luck at times, including posting a league-worst average turnover margin of -1.9. If they get better in those areas, they can hang in this game on their home turf.
Bears vs. Commanders Prediction
At this point, we still don't know if Jayden Daniels is going to suit up this weekend. If you think he will, it's likely the better choice to hold off on betting on the Bears until that announcement is made as the line will move toward the Commanders.
Because I have to place all my bets on Monday night, I'll reluctantly back the Bears at -2.5 and accept having a bad line if Daniels is cleared. There are two main reasons I'm backing Chicago in this one. The first of which is the Bears' offense had begun clicking before they had their BYE week, averaging 6.1 yards per play over their last three games, the 10th-best mark in the NFL in that stretch.
Secondly, the Bears' defense has been underrated in 2024, especially their secondary. They are third in opponent yards per pass attempt (5.7), first in opponent dropback EPA, and second in opponent dropback success rate. Their defense will be a huge challenge for whoever it is that plays quarterback for the Commanders in this one.
I'll back Chicago fresh off their BYE week.
Cowboys vs. 49ers Prediction
We have seen the Dallas Cowboys play in six games this season and it may be time for us to accept they simply aren't a good football team in 2024. Their offense ranks amongst the worst in the league in most metrics, including ranking 24th in EPA per play and 22nd in success rate. Dak Prescott is in the midst of one of the worst seasons of his career, ranking 25th in EPA+CPOE composite, one spot below Daniel Jones and two spots worse than Will Levis.
The 49ers offense is banged up with still no Christian McCaffey, Brandon Aiyuk out for the season, and Deebo Samuel fighting an illness, but they should still be able to run the ball down the throat of this Dallas defense. The Cowboys simply can't stop the run, ranking dead last by a mile in opponent rush EPA.
Overall, despite being 3-4, the 49ers are still second in the NFL in Net Yards per Play at +1.1 while Dallas is 24th at -0.5. They're a far superior team and we should treat them as such.
Giants vs. Steelers Prediction
My upset of the week is going to be the New York Giants to take down the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday Night Football. My belief that the Steelers aren't as good as their record is going to continue to haunt me, but let's remember this team ranks 19th in Net Yards per Play (-0.2).
Russell Wilson had a strong first start against the New York Jets but I still remember the version of Wilson we saw in Denver and I expect that version of him to show up sooner rather than later. Now that he's playing against an underrated Giants defense with an elite pass rush, it could be this week.
I think this Pittsburgh team is overvalued against a feisty Giants squad. I'll take a shot on New York pulling off the upset.
